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AWRA Alaska Southeast-Region Meetings
December 10, 2009
ANALYSIS OF SELECT STREAM DISCHARGE MODELS IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA; Terry Schwarz, AKDNR ANALYSIS OF SELECT STREAM DISCHARGE MODELS IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA Terry Schwarz Analysis of error was undertaken on four regionally-based statistical
streamflow models in Southeast Alaska for the purpose of determining
the overall fitness of the models when compared to current USGS gage
records. Modern and historic data were utilized in a Geographic
Information System (GIS) to extract basin characteristics for use as
model variables. Spatial, temporal, and basin attribute trends were
examined to establish if any factors showed a relationship to relative
model error. On average all models over-predicated discharge, with a
mean relative error ranging from -0.1% to 20% and standard deviation
of error ranging from 20% to 60%. No basin characteristics had strong
correlation with model error. A cyclic trend was found in the error
of the Mean Monthly Discharge (QAM) models, suggesting seasonal
changes in modern streamflow statistics possibly due to climate
change. No obvious trend in the spatial distribution of error was
found, possibly because of the clustered nature of test gages.
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